Real Name: David Tewes Member Since: September 24, 2007 Last Signed In: October 09, 2008 Profile Views: 1624 Blog Views: 6161 Astronomy Day 2008 Of droughts and floods Hubble Space Telescope fails Tropics getting busy Astroimages for you desktop Hurricane season isn't over for Texas yet Ike's storm surge could have caused serious problems locally Be sure to catch the planets tonight Hurricane Ike's wild winds Ike is still approaching the coast September 07 October 07 November 07 December 07 January 08 February 08 March 08 April 08 May 08 June 08 July 08 August 08 September 08 October 08 
RSS 2.0    |
|
|
Are you expecting a hurricane this year?
There are no guarantees, but at least one forecaster believes there will be a near-normal number of hurricanes and tropical storms this year.
More importantly, AccuWeather.com's forecast calls for a relatively large percentage of those storms to strike the United States. AccuWeather forecaster Joe Bastardi believes that risk is 1.6 times the norm. He also believes the best chance for early storm development is in the western or central Gulf of Mexico. This is based primarily on very warm water in the western and central Gulf, cool water in the western Caribbean Sea, the expected June steering currents in the central Gulf, and a drier-than-normal pattern in the northwest Caribbean. The forecast holds that the primary period of hurricane threat will run from mid-August to mid-October and will encompass the entire Gulf and Atlantic. Anyone else care to venture a forecast? 4 comments from 3 users
1
posted by
dtewes
on Jun 18, 2008 at 07:59 AM
The National Hurricane Center's forecasts have come a long way in just the last decade, especially when it comes to forecasting where the storms will go.
posted by
pilot
on Jun 17, 2008 at 11:17 PM
Nah, not venture a forecast, other than to predict that if we get a big one, that the oil companies will stick it to us, and that a lot of idiots in low lying areas will unnecessarily tax our first responders. Given the variance in water temps, Pacific storms' influence on the caribe/Gulf season, and a rich history of mid course corrections by Bill Gray, etc....I do not put a a lot of stock in pre-season, overall estimates of named storms. I will however, say that I am very impressed with the tracking models, and landfall predictions that we now are seeing, based on real time buoy information, and satellite imagery and computer model forecasts, based on NOAA data. And once the Cape Verde/Azores season kicks in.......and the real big boy cyclones head this way, the accuracy factor that the NHCTPC boys have established, makes it a lot less of a craps shoot as far as predicting landfall location and strength. All we are missing now, is a willingness by the general public to heed the warnings, and evac in an orderly fashion, once they are put on notice. I am not a meteorologist, but rather an observer of history, and a veteran of having ridden out, and/or fled an above average number of tropical cyclones. You can bet that if we have any close calls or direct hits this season, I will be there, recorder in hand, to document them, but know that having been caught off guard a couple of times in staying when I should have left, I am getting better at knowing when to hold and when to fold....... an afterthought....if anyone has the know how to transfer frim Hi 8 videotape to digital media, I have a couple of hours of good footage from Claudette in '03, that I taped from a moving and parked truck, before, during and after eye passage. It was all shot in Seadrift, at either the harbor point, or roaming the city at street level at the peak of the storm. .......and yes, Bastardi is knowledgable, but I put more stock in Jeff Masters, and the bloggers at Wunderground, than most anybody, save for Dr. Neil Frank, a transplanted Houstonian, and a man with a good working knowledge of all things tropical. posted by
dtewes
on Jun 17, 2008 at 08:41 PM
Wait a minute! That was my forecast. ;>)
posted by
bighorn
on Jun 17, 2008 at 08:04 PM
Bastardi is better than the National Weather Service/Weather Channel/National Hurricane Center rolled together. My forecast is even more accurate. For the Hurricane Season of 2008, I predict that a major or minor hurricane will or will not strike the Texas Gulf Coast. Wanna bet?
1
|
