Fantasy Sports - BillyMau's Blog

Fantasy Sports - BillyMau's Blog - Victoria Advocate http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau This will be your go-to blog for fantasy sports info, tips and discussion. Football and baseball are the main focus, but we can also get into basketball, hockey and even golf. This will be your go-to blog for fantasy sports info, tips and discussion. Football and baseball are the main focus, but we can also get into basketball, hockey and even golf. en-us 9% of fantasy football players get punched in the gut http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/8750 http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/8750 The scramble is on for fantasy football players that used their first round pick on Tom Brady. The NFL's Golden Boy is done for the year with a serious knee injury, and the reality and fantasy worlds of football are saying the same thing: "What in the heck just happened?" An injury like this affects a lot more than just Brady-owners. People used quality picks on the likes of Randy Moss and Wes Welker, who will now be catching passes from Matt Cassel (a guy that hasn't started a meaningful game since high school - look it up) Expect Moss to still put up decent numbers. Welker is a different matter. The Pats may go to a more run-heavy offense, meaning less balls for the WRs. Moss will get his because he has to, but Welker might not be as good of an option. The best you can hope for as a Welker owner is that the guy develops an amazing bond with Cassel and becomes the safety net. Needless to say, but Lawrence Maroney, LaMont Jordan and Kevin Faulk just got a little more valuable. Favre named Jets' starter. What does it mean? http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/8426 http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/8426 Unless you have been living under a rock (provided said rock is not located in Wisconsin or New York) you know that the mighty Brett Favre was dealt to the New York Jets for a draft pick to be sorted out later. Favre watched a preseason game from the sidelines in Cleveland, then made his practice field debut on Saturday. It must have been a dang good practice because Favre will start the next preseason game. Now let's look at this from a fantasy football angle. Favre is likely going to start for the Jets, but should he start for your team? No. I don't care how many parades you throw for the guy, I just don't trust him. He's in a brand new system with a bunch of guys he doesn't know from Adam. He could make a good bye-week backup, but anyone that takes him before the 10th round of their draft is a sucker. And what about Chad Pennington? He was booted out of New York the instant Brett Favre told the Jets nation that he woudl always be a Packer. The Dolphins snatched Pennington up quick and named him their starter before he even found a jersey that fit. So should you draft Pennington this season? No. I've got two ironclad arguments supporting this advice. 1. It's the Dolphins 2. It's Chad Pennington. Seriously, was anyone going to pick him if he was starting in New York? Didn't think so. Stay tuned to the blog and my column this week. I'll be announcing the the players in the 2008 Advocate Charity Fantasy Football League. Exciting stuff, folks. Fantasy football leagues are opening up http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/8051 http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/8051 I officially started my fantasy football season this week when I signed up for the first of my usual run of three of four teams. Nothing fancy, just a free league team on ESPN.com (my FFL host of choice) I generally play free leagues because I tend to get dirty looks around the house when I drop 20, 30 or 40 bucks on a fantasy football league. I played in and won a prize-eligible league last season on ESPN.com thanks to their complimentary teams for veteran users, but not even that beautiful championship mini-banner hanging in the bedroom has warmed my loving wife on the idea of pay-to-play leagues. Oh well, free is fun too. Most of my online teams are set up for auto-drafts. Shocking for an FFL guru such as myself, but I don't like trying to work my schedule around a live draft. The only live draft I make a point of doing is the Advocate Charity League draft, and that's mostly because it's a cheap excuse to hit the bar and tie a couple on.  Besides, I don't get all hung up on drafting. My live drafts are usually horrible. My strong point is in-season moves. A Billy Mau team is pretty useless until the after the second week when I can start getting impatient owners to go for some panic trades. That said, I am going to start putting together my Big Board for this year's Advocate draft. I expect to officially announce the season soon, but feel free to send me you fantasy resumes if you want to play this time around. Fantasy football offseason spectacular http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/7300 http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/7300 I’m finally shaking off the last bits of my post-draft meditative coma and it’s high time to get my football blog on.  A lot has happened since the fantasy football season ended in January. Free agents signed some deals, some big trades were made and some even bigger trades weren’t made. That many roster shakeups gets a lot fantasy footballers frothing at the mouth, myself included.  With that said, let’s have a look at what will be shaping those early versions of you FF mock drafts.  <o:p></o:p> The Free Agents: The first name that jumps out in mind from the free agent signings is Michael Turner. This guy has excelled in his backup role behind LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego so much so that someone would almost always take this guy fairly early in league drafts (I’ve seen him go as early as the 8th round). Now he finally gets a starting role with the Atlanta Falcons and is factoring into people’s draft strategies. The knee-jerk reaction will be to take this guy in the first three rounds, and I’m sure plenty of people will. I can’t see myself taking him there unless there is a huge run on RBs that makes quality of depth a concern. I put this guy in the fifth round as a solid #3 back. I do that because he hasn’t started since college and hasn’t really had many touches in the pros. He’s had some great games, but has never had to sustain himself for a long stretch. I would be worried about him flaming out in the second half of the season and I don’t want my #1 or #2 RB doing that. It probably won’t be my problem anyway because someone is going to take this guy in the first round. I can feel it. I generally play four or five teams, and Turner will probably be gone quick in all but one of them (if that). The wide receiver move that interests me most is Jerry Porter to Jacksonville. Porter has burned a lot of fantasy owners in recent seasons, but this looks like a great move. Talent has never been Porter’s problem. It’s attitude that has hurt him the most and I think the change of scenery will be good for him. He’s going to be the top dog and Jack Del Rio isn’t the kind of coach to let Porter get too full of himself. The combo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield should put Porter in a lot of man-on-man situations. He’s certainly worth a look in the middle rounds as a #2 WR. The last free agent of note is TE Alge Crumpler going to Tennessee. It’s not hard to see Crumpler being the leading receiver on this team. The Titans are pathetic at WR and Vince Young will need someone to throw to when not aiming for opposing safeties.  <o:p></o:p> The Draft: There’s always a guy in every draft that makes a reach on a rookie hoping that it will make him look like a genius. Guys that spent that 3rd-to-6th rounder on Adrian Peterson last season got to bask in the glow of that one. I’m wondering who will get that label this year.  The first round was loaded with offensive linemen and defensive picks, meaning there are few “sexy” options with rookie picks. Darren McFadden has some fantasy owners chomping at the bit. He’s been compared to Peterson, but I’m not so sure. Talk is that he’s a lot more Reggie Bush than Adrian Peterson, and that’s not good for the fantasy bottom line. He’s also in an offense loaded with running backs. His projected role has him as a #4 option at best. The best bets in my eyes are Jonathan Stewart in Carolina and Rashard Mendenhall in Pittsburgh. I can see Stewart becoming the workhorse in that Panthers offense because DeAngelo Williams is undersized and LaBrandon Toefield is not starting material. Mendenhall will not get a ton of yards because of Willie Parker, but he should get the touchdowns in short-yardage situations. My sleeper pick from the rookies is Jerome Simpson, the WR taken by the Bengals in the second round. He might not have been the highest-rated receiver, but he’s got the right situation. The Bengals cut Chris Henry and Chad Johnson is pulling a T.O. this offseason. That could mean big playing time for Simpson opposite T.J. Whozyourmama.  <o:p></o:p> Let me know what you think of the offseason so far. There’s not enough time for me to get into everything in one blog entry, but I’ll gladly answer question (yes Gabe, we can talk about Felix Jones).  <o:p></o:p> I’ll also answer any fantasy baseball question I can. I don’t play as much fantasy baseball as I do football, but I still enjoy it. Week 13 fantasy preview http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/5927 http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/5927 So the Cowboys and Packers got a head start on me, but there are still another 15 games this weekend and there are some matchups that could help your team make that last playoff push, or help sew up that first-round bye. Lions at Vikings: Adrian Peterson is probable for this on, but you still might want to do a Sunday morning check just in case. Either Peterson or Chestor Taylor are great starts, and Taylor may be worth a start even if Peterson is a go. You don't know how that knee is going to hold up, so they may split some time. On the Detroit side, expect plenty of passing. The Vikings are going to try to eat up the clock, so expect the Lions to go for big plays when they get the ball. Kitna is the safest start, and Roy Williams is solid. Calvin Johnson, Kevin Jones and Shaun McDonald could aslo get some decent points. Jaguars at Colts: This game doesn't look good for the Colts. The Simeon Rice experiment on defense failed, meaning the Colts will have a weaker pass rush against David Garard, but don't expect that to matter. Expect a steady dose of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew all day long. Jones-Drew is the better start because he gets the touchdowns (Taylor has more yards on the season, but Jones-Drew holds a 7-2 advantage in TDs). Joseph Addai is a start for the Colts, but he's been banged up and probably won't hit that 20-point mark as he did so often earlier in the year. Peyton Manning will face a stiff pass rush and may be in for another rough outing. Browns at Cardinals: Here's your fantasy goldmine this week. Two big offense-weak defense teams squaring off on a mild Arizona winter's day. Cleveland's big three (Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow) are great starts. Same goes for Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Patriots at Ravens: Some people might have been pulled in by Bill Belichick's gushing over the Ravens' defense, but I ain't buying it. No one else has stopped the Patriots, and these very same Ravens gave up 33 points to Cleveland. I shouldn't even have to tell you to start Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welkers, but it looks like I just did anyway. Finally , I'm going to give you my surprise pick of the weak. Trent Edwards has not been great for the Bills this week, but he may be in for a good game on Sunday. I almost feel like I'm kicking a team when its down in the Redskins, who are coping with the death of teammate Sean Taylor, but I just can't see them getting over that emotional hurdle in this one. Factor in also that Buffalo will be going with a third-string running back and that spells lots of passing attempts. Edwards will find Lee Evans enough to put up some decent fantasy points. Week 11 fantasy preview http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/5769 http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/5769 We've got some ugly games on the slate for this week. It's hard to get too excited for games like Dolphins-Eagles, Raiders-Vikings, Rams-49ers or Cardinals-Bengals, but that's where fantasy football comes in. Let's take a look at why these otherwise horrible games matter on the fantasy front. Dolphins-Eagles: Philly isn't great and Miami is horrible, but there are some interesting matchups in this one. If Donavan McNabb can stay upright he should have a good game throwing to Kevin Curtis against a weak Miami secondary. Expect Bryan Westbrook to also have big numbers, as he is the keystone to the Philly offense. The Dolphins also have a couple of players worth looking at. Running back Jesse Chatman might be running for his job this weekend with the return of Ricky Williams, and John Beck gets his first NFL start. Should Chatman or Beck be in your lineup? No. But if you're in a deep league, these guys are good options for injury replacements. Raiders-Vikings: With Adrian Peterson out, this will be a big game for Chester Taylor fans. You've also got a Raiders offense that specializes in the run and a Vikings defense that specializes in stopping the run.If you've got faith in the likes of Justin Fargas, go with him. Otherwise, that Minnesota D might be worth a look. Rams-49ers: Man, oh man, what a stinker. Two of the worst teams in football throwdown in what will surely go down in history as a game that was played on Sunday. The Rams had a good game against the Saints last week, which means that it might be time to dust off Torry Holt, Marc Bulger and Stephen Jackson (if he can avoid getting hurt). Dilfer gets another start for the 49ers, which means you don't want any San Fran players anywhere near your roster. Cardinals-Bengals: Two inconsistent offenses should enjoy big games against two really bad defenses. Expect Kurt Warner and Carson Palmer to put up strong numbers in game that amount to little more than 7-on-7 practice. My picks: Bucs over Falcons Chargers over Jaguars Steelers over Jets Browns over Ravens Eagles over Dolphins Packers over Panthers Raiders over Vikins Cardinals over Bengals Colts over Chiefs Patriots over Bills Texans over Saints Cowboys over Redskins Rams over 49ers Giants over Lions Seahawks over Bears Titans over Broncos Last week's picks results: 6-8. Hey, we all have bad days. Week 10 fantasy review http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/5719 http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/5719 This was a rough weekend for people that listened to me for fantasy advice. The Advocate's intrepid education reporter Bj Lewis asked me if he should go with LaDainian Tomlinson or Adrian Peterson in his single-RB league. I told him that he couldn't go wrong either way, but that I though Petereson would have the bigger day. Unfortunately I did not factor a potentially season-ending knee injury. I haven't had the guts to ask him if he went with my suggestion. While Adrian Peterson may have broken hearts, Brian Westbrook had fantasy owners dancing in the streets. The Eagles running back led all fantasy scorers, finishing in the neighborhood of 36 points depending on your league's scoring system. Westbrook rushed for 100 yds and a TD and rolled up another 83 receiving yards and 2 TDs. Sticking to the fine state of Pennsylvania, how about that Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben was the top-scoring QB of the weekend thanks to a 278-yard passing performance highlighted by a 30-yard touchdown run. I thought Drew Brees would be in for the big week out of the QBs, but I was wrong again. Now allow me to use my movie preview guy voice for this next one. In a world where Randy Moss is on a bye week, one man would rise above the rest to rule the fantasy football world. That man: Terrell Owens. T.O. was good for about 24 points this week and helped the Cowboys pretty much win the NFC East in week 10. And now for the rest of the 20-point wonders for week 10: QB - Donavan McNabb, Brett Favre, Tony Romo, Marc Bulger. WR - Reggie Wayne, James Thrash. DEF - San Diego, Denver. K - Shayne Graham. You might be saying to this blog, "Hey jerk, you left out the running backs!" No I didn't. Westbrook was the only one. That's right. You've got two defenses and a kicker breaking 20, but only one RB was up to task. Week 10 fantasy preview http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/5665 http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/5665 Week 10 has some interesting fantasy match ups to offer. Can Adrian Peterson keep up his record pace against the Packers? Who's the better QB in the Philadelphia-Washington game? Where do you turn for gimme points with the Patriots on a bye? Let's take a look. Straight Money: Yeah the Packers have a really good defense, but have you seen this Adrian Peterson guy? He plays in a one-dimensional offense and routinely sees eight defenders in the box, yet this kid is still on a pace to challenge Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record. After his record-setting 296 yard game, I'm expecting Mr. All-Day to have an off day - of about 120 yards and two touchdowns. Straight Money?: Chad Johnson is hurt and the Bengals are playing the Ravens, but I'm thinking Carson Palmer still might be in for a big game. That Ravens' D is a little banged up after getting beat down by the Steelers, especially Ed Reed, and the Bengals get bad boy Chris Henry back for this one. (Blank) is the new Tom Brady: Actually, it's more of a temporary Brady since the Pats only take one bye week, but expect Drew Brees to light it up this week. He seems to have recovered very nicely from his rough start and he gets the dream match up of the winless, hapless Rams. Mmmm, Mmmm, good: Jason Campbell could be in for a big game against the Philadelphia Eagles. While he's probably not a regular starter on most fantasy teams, he could be worth a look if you're starter is on a bye or if he's looking at a tough match up. The Eagles are a bad team, and now they are a disgruntled squad. Donavan McNabb called out the entire team this week, and there is no guarantee that the team will respond favorably. Aside from Campbell, Clinton Portis and the Washington D could be worth a start. Talking Texas: Houston is on a bye, so the focus is directly on the Cowboys. The Cowboys barely snuck by the Giants when they (the Giants) were horrible. The G-Men are 6-1 since that game and now they square off in New Jersey. The Boys could be in trouble here. Tony Romo will be good, but not great. T.O. will get enough throws his way to be a good start and Marion Barber is also a good start. Billy's Picks: Straight up win-loss picks here, as always. I don't do spreads and I don't do bets. I cannot be held responsible for goons breaking your kneecaps over my picks. Chiefs over Broncos Bills over Dolphins Panthers over Falcons (I'm probably wrong. this one is too ugly to pick) Jags over Titans Steelers over Browns (I love the Browns, just not in Pittsburgh) Redskins over Eagles Saints over Rams Packers over Vikings Ravens over Bengals Lions over Cardinals Bears over Raiders Giants over Cowboys (I gotta hunch on this one) Colts over Chargers Seahawks over 49ers Last week: 9-5 Week 9 fantasy review http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/5617 http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/5617 One could talk about BIg Ben Roethlisberger's five-TD night against the Ravens, or Drew Brees' 445 passing yards against Jacksonville, but those games whimper in the mighty shadow of Adrian Peterson. Peterson ran for an NFL-record 296 yards against the Chargers, leading the Vikings to a huge upset win. Oh yeah, it's only Peterson's eighth NFL game. How's that learning curve working out? The knock on Peterson coming out of Oklahoma was that he was injury prone and would hold up for an NFL season. That Charger game put Peterson over 1,000 yards, so by my estimation, he's already held up for a season. Now he's starting his second season with the eight remaining games. This guy might be shaping up into one of the best fantasy values this season. Peterson was a mid- to late-round pick in most leagues because he was stuck behind Chester Taylor on the depth chart. He's quickly emerged as a must-start back and looks like he'll be around for a while. You want this guy on your team, especially if you have a team in a keeper league. Week 9 fantasy preview http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/5559 http://community.victoriaadvocate.com/home/Blog/BillyMau/5559 Welcome to the Week 9 Rundown. We've got 14 games this week and we've got some good ones. As a fan, I live for weeks like this. Now for my fantasy picks and game picks. 49ers at Falcons: These are two hurting teams both physically and record-wise. The Falcons ditched their man-mountain DT Grady Jackson, so expect Frank Gore to find a seem or two in the running game. Joey Harrington is back with Byron Leftwich hurt for Atlanta. I wouldn't start him, but Roddy White might be a good play. Alex Smith is still healing for the 49ers, but I think he's good enough to beat the Falcons. My pick: 49ers. Bengals at Bills: It's a well-known fact that the Bengals hold a personal grudge against me and sabotage my picks each week. With that said, I'm expecting a big game from Carson Palmer and his receivers, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. That Buffalo D is pretty banged up. J.P. Lousman is back in the starting QB role with rookie Trent Edwards a little banged up, so don't expect much in the passing game. It's still possible that Lee Evans will find the all against the Bengals' pathetic secondary. Marshawn Lynch is also worth a start. My pick: Bengals. Broncos at Lions: The Broncos have two all-pro cornerbacks, but they seem to be suffering a crisis of confidence. They'll have a hard time getting their swagger back against the Lions' passing attack. Expect Jon Kitna to spread the ball around to Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson and Shaun McDonald. The downside is that one of those WRs will bomb out in this game...I just don't know which one. Selvin Young is getting more time at RB for the Broncos and is a good bye-week option. My pick: Lions. Panthers at Titans: David Carr gets the start for the Panthers, so expect Steve Smith to continue his drop off the face of the fantasy earth. In fact, the Panthers are just in trouble all-around against this Titans' D. Start the defense and LenDale White from the Titans. Avoid any Panther, Vince Young or any of the Titans' WRs. My pick: Titans. Packers at Chiefs: It's hard to say what this game will bring. The matchups show that the KC secondary could be tough on Brett Favre, but it's hard to sit the guy with the hot hand. Donald Driver is a solid start, as is Larry Johnson and Dwayne Bowe. The Packers' D will give up yards, but not scores. My pick: Packers. Chargers at Vikings: I'm expecting a slaughter in this one. The Chargers will put nine defenders on Adrian Peterson and that will be enough to crush the Vikings. LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates and the Chargers' D are must starts. Phillip Rivers and Chris Chambers are solid options as well. My pick: Chargers. Jaguars at Saints: This will be a good one for sure. The Jags will have to be successful pounding the ball in the ground game with starting QB David Garrard still out. The Jacksonville defense should keep the Saints' offense in check. This looks to be a low-scoring game. Start Maurice Jones-Drew, Drew Brees and Marques Colston. The Jacksonville D might be a good option. My pick: Jaguars Redskins at Jets: Kellen Clemens is finally starting at QB for the Jets, but it won't matter. Laveraneus Coles is likely out with a concussion, and the entire offense will suffer because of it. Clinton Portis should have a good game, and Jason Campbell might be worth a start if you're bold enough. My pick: Redskins. Cardinals at Buccaneers: Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin will get their numbers, not a win. Expect big games from Jeff Garcia, Earnest Graham and Joey Galloway. My pick: Bucs. Seattle at Cleveland: The Charlie Frye Bowl! I can't say it enough - Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow are can't miss starts. Shaun Alexander might pull off a good game against the Browns' D. My pick: Browns Patriots at Colts: A fantasy dream game. Start the Big Three from each team - Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker for NE and Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai and Reggie Wayne for Indy. Both teams are undefeated, but the Colts have played the tougher schedule so far so...My pick: Colts. Texans at Raiders: Sage Rosenfels starts for Houston and should do well. Josh McKown will start for Oakland and might do well. The real test here is the Raiders running game against Houston's front seven. Lamont Jordan and/or Justin Fargas will play well on Sunday. The Texans say Andre Johnson is a game time call, but I wouldn't count on it. Start Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels if you want a Texan in your lineup. My pick: Texans Cowboys at Eagles: There are three good teams in the NFC East, but the Eagles aren't one of them. Tony Romo, Marion Barber and T.O. are good starts. Kevin Curtis is likely the best start for the Eagles with Bryan Westbrook right behind him. My pick: Cowboys. Ravens at Steelers: Low scoring, bad fantasy matchup. You could almost get away with starting either defense. Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward and Willie Parker are good starts. Willis McGahee is good if you need a bye week back. My pick: Steelers.